The divisions were everywhere. 9. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. But both are worth watching. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. All other 21 counties voted Republican. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Watauga has gone for. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. These counties could play an . Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Found an error on our site? At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. (i.e. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Telegram Telegram They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Contributors wanted The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. All Rights Reserved. It also backed Gov. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. . While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Trump won 18 of the 19. We believe this was a mistake. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. 2016 Election (1135) 2020 Election (1210) A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. First, what are bellwether counties? Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Click here, for more. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Outstanding. Go on, look them up! (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. "They followed through the whole four years. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. 3. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. What science tells us about the afterlife. Hillary Clinton (578) The highest percentage being 66.1%. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Demographics (84) Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Read about our approach to external linking. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! The divisions were everywhere. 3. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. 11. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. 5. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Arapahoe County. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Just how big is it? The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Watch Hampton City. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. 03:30. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Suggest an improvement, report an issue, We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Subscribe to breaking updates This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). The matters that way on their minds are real. Election night is going to be information overload. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. They simply vote on merit. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. All rights reserved. (Sorry, not sorry.) If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. (Go to the bottom of the page. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. 4. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). (subject to censorship). Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Joe Biden (631) Thank you for supporting our journalism. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. 10. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Have you looked at the results of these counties? It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election.