Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. He considers Trump pro-life. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. I just want Trump in. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. I got a life. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Its just not that great, Paul said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Logistically, its a disaster. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. 0:00 0:00. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. And its never going to come back.. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. We need creative leadership, Miller said. "If. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. The morale of the people up there is bad. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. On . I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. 2016 Trump. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. He says hell vote for Trump. Theyre scared. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. He is his own worst enemy.. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But thats not the picture I look at. He isnt so sure about Biden. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Its crazy. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Im looking at both sides of it. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Blaine County. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. And we just want that to continue. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. People need to get a job, get out and work. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. . I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. This claim is basically absurd. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Two states have announced recounts.