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"Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). What makes a great Super Bowl? A 142 season, and the best offense in the league led by Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. Tennessee already has the game's best running back in Derrick Henry and one of the league's best big-play receivers in A.J. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. 16. and a dramatic finish. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. ONCE. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. Which is a shame, because this 11-4-1 team had a defense that was really impressive throughout the year. Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. The Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have been involved in some of the worst Super Bowls, but so have the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. 1 pick. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. This team is starting to scratch the surface of its potential. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. W. 23-20. 5. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. 29. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. Top 5 in both points for and against, the Vikings 10-win record kept them from being higher on this list. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. Give them five years to become a dynasty. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. Reporting on what you care about. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. But the Super Bowl? While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. Los Angeles is going to score points this year. 15. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. 6-keys: media/spln/nfl/reg/free/stories, at 20. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. Boomer Esiason and the Bengals were the most productive offense in 1988. This was actually the closest one they played. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. It seems odd to think of Terry Bradshaw as a problem, but in 1974 he took over for Joe Gilliam. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. This Super Bowl had it all: An underdog story (Nick Foles), a memorable play (Philly Special), a controversial coaching decision (Belichick benching Malcolm Butler), a ton of points (a record 74 points combined!) CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | Jalen Hurts will not pull a The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. And while the effect isn't dramatic, they would each be a little better off if the other weren't around. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. Joe Montanas first Super Bowl win was nearly squandered after the 49ers let the Bengals nearly erase a 20-point deficit. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Tennessee Titans +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total), Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but Im leery of taking the bait. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. Head coach Bill Cowher would get Super Bowl redemption the next decade, but this 115 team was pretty great all around. 3. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. The game may have been bad, but this is NFL history. A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. All Rights Reserved. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. Will this be the first time for everything?. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. ODonnell set Larry Browns family up for life with his dreadful performance. Super Bowl VIII: Burrow should be ready by Week 1, and has an impressive cast of receivers that will make the Bengals passing game even more lethal in 2021. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. As Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers went back and forth to win the title, Super Bowl LIV is the 13th-best Super Bowl on our list. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion.. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. They went 3-0.. Adding Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods, Sheldon Richardsonand Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency improves this unit -- which also gets Danielle Hunter back from a neck injury. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. With an 11-2-1 record, this group was one of many Vikings teams that should have won the big game. The Dirty Bird Falcons werent a match for the best team John Elway played on. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). As of now, FPI is working under the assumption that two rookies -- the Jaguars' Lawrence and the Jets' Wilson -- are their respective teams' current starters. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. What should have been a great quarterback matchup Marino vs. Montana turned into a blowout as the Dolphins gunslinger couldnt keep up with the 49ers surgeon. A smart strategy? Complete team-by-team FPI projections New Orleans Saints +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), The most puzzling number on the board, as Im much lower on the Saints than this.. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. Let's dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. 27. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. A 124 record and a solid defense? What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. Putting that unbelievable anecdote aside, the 49ers stumbled into the Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals, and Montana did what Montana seemingly always did. Osi Umenyiora was the team's only starting Pro Bowler and the Giants trailed in every postseason game they played. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL Joe Namath may have guaranteed a Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts, but he didn't say anything about being the best team of all time. Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Obviously a dramatic ending helps, but that doesnt alway mean a great game. And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. Terrell Davis three-touchdown game won him MVP honors. and quarterback rating (112.4). Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. The Chiefs win Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). 13. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021. So why are they lower value-wise? The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. This game did feature one of the best defenses in NFL history, but watching it dismantle a Kerry Collins-led offense wasnt all that exciting. With Aaron Rodgers' future in limbo, the Vikings could be primed to win the NFC North. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! This team just wasn't ready yet. Here are the 10 most likely Super Bowl LV matchups: The Green Bay Packers are clearly Super Bowl contenders. The Cardinals defense significantly improved with the addition of J.J. Watt and the return of Chandler Jones on the pass rush. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Teams that barely squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card berth have become frequent commodities on this list, so it only feels appropriate to include the first wild-card team to ever win the Super Bowl. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. The game that confirmed Joe Flacco was elite. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. This post originally ran in January 2018. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. It's all about the schedule. Obsessed with travel? The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. A crummy game turned into an instant classic thanks to a brilliant game-winning drive authored by Joe Montana. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. New England Patriots +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), If Bill Belichick can figure out his QB, the Patriots are going to be extremely dangerous. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%). Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. Id say so, yes.. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. Then Jim was thoroughly outcoached at every point by Sean Payton. This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. The one Peyton let get away. That was by design. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, is learning a new offense, albeit with a smart coach and talented skill players. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/2019-super-bowl-rankings-best-to-worst, a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs, Anthony Richardson showed off his freakish athleticism by breaking 2 NFL Combine records, Joey Porter Jr. shared a wholesome moment with dad Joey Porter at 2023 NFL Combine, Will Levis finally shared the origin story for his mayo coffee, How to watch the NFL Combine, live stream, TV channel, Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends, Bryce Young's measurements at the NFL Combine are almost identical to Kyler Murray's, C.J. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total), Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. As Rodgers' future hung in the balance over the summer, so too did the Packers' projections. This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting Cam Newton had an MVP season to remember and ran an offense that produced 31.3 points per game. The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. Detroit has a young and talented offensive line (average age 24 years old) to protect new quarterback Jared Goffwho is looking to resurrect his career after getting traded by the Los Angeles Rams. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. QB | RB | WR | TE The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. The game was so bad that the MVP award did not even go to a member of the winning team. Those numbers should improve under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the Panthers will find out if Darnold can become a franchise quarterback. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the edit: grammar An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. Adding Marvin Jones to a young receiving unit that already includes Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. The Browns also have a good defense that improved with the additions of John Johnson III at safety, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker, Jadeveon Clowney at edge rusher, and Greg Newsome II at cornerback. As the tweet said, only 28 players have achieved that in the last decade-plus. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. worst team defense to win a super bowl The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. FIFA World Cup - Best Goals from Every Angle, Draw for the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023, C.J. 2) The AFC North is a filthy, disgusting mosh pit whence nobody comes out alive. 23. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. Star quarterback Phil Simms was injured during the playoffs, no player had more than 30 catches during the regular season and the team was carried by a great defense that allowed only 13.2 points per game. Ranking 12 teams that never won a Super Bowl by best chance 19. Super Bowl MVP Pick. The Kansas City Chiefs might have lost Super Bowl LV, but they are still the NFL team to beat this season, according to the new ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections for 2021. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). This was the year that Joe Montana and Steve Young alternated starts at quarterback until eventually Montana firmly took the reins down the stretch. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. Both of those teams went on to lose in the Super Bowl. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20.